Veterans United Home Loans, the leading provider of VA loans, is optimistic about the housing market’s prospects in 2025.
They predict a drop in mortgage rates, potentially reaching as low as 6.3% next year.
This decline is expected to follow anticipated cuts from the Federal Reserve.
Housing Market Expectations
According to the company’s recent report, significant changes in the housing market are anticipated to settle into a more stable phase by 2025.
Veterans United expects a gradual easing of both mortgage rates and the pace of home price appreciation.
However, they caution that affordability challenges are expected to persist.
In their Housing Market Outlook for 2025, the lender outlines expectations for mortgage rates and home prices.
They estimate that rates will average around 6.5% for the year, tapering to 6.3% due to projected cutbacks from the Federal Reserve, which is likely to lower rates by 75 basis points.
This may place mortgage rates between 3.50% and 3.75%.
Challenges and Opportunities
Despite this optimistic outlook, Veterans United warns that any benefits from reduced mortgage rates may not be felt immediately.
They note that the Federal Reserve’s actions will influence rates over time rather than in a sudden shift.
Moreover, shifts in the broader economy, such as rising Treasury issuance requirements, could counteract these declines, placing upward pressure on rates.
The overall landscape for the housing market will be shaped by both obstacles and opportunities, as described by Joe Ellison, Vice President of Capital Markets at Veterans United.
He noted that affordability remains at the forefront of concerns for both buyers and sellers.
According to Ellison, 2025 will present a complex environment in which signs of potential recovery may collide with ongoing economic pressures.
Innovative Financing Solutions
For homebuyers, lower mortgage rates may seem promising; however, existing factors such as persistent inflation and stagnant wages are likely to hinder purchasing power.
This scenario may prompt sellers to be more flexible and consider concessions to attract buyers in this competitive climate.
Affordability continues to be a pressing issue, a trend Veterans United expects to continue into 2025.
They forecast home prices to rise approximately 3.2%, leading to a national average nearing $424,977.
This aligns closely with predictions from HousingWire, which estimates a 3.5% increase in home values.
Veterans United also anticipates that existing home sales will range between 4.2 to 4.5 million, coinciding with HousingWire’s projection of about 4.2 million sales—a 5% increase overall.
Challenges related to affordability stem from a slowdown in new housing starts, largely driven by soaring costs of building materials and labor.
These rising expenses may be exacerbated by the policies of the newly established Trump administration, with Redfin highlighting that aggressive tariffs and immigration rules could directly impact construction labor and housing supply.
Despite these challenges, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) points out that increasing housing supply could help combat both inflation and the nation’s housing affordability crisis.
However, how these construction-related costs will play out remains uncertain.
To tackle affordability issues, Veterans United advocates for “innovative financing solutions and loan products” aimed at supporting moderate-income earners—those making between 50% and 80% of the area’s median income—as well as first-time homebuyers.
These options may include government-backed loans, various concessions and incentives, rate buy-downs, and assistance with closing costs.
The lender emphasizes that qualifying for programs such as VA, FHA, and USDA loans could afford individuals lower rates.
The report also anticipates that refinancing will continue to hold a steady share of 15% to 20% of all mortgage transactions.
Homeowners are likely to explore options like home equity lines of credit and cash-out refinancing to access necessary funds.
Source: Housingwire